Category Archives: Musings

Are We Missing the Point on Artificial Intelligence?

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Read an interesting article yesterday about Duke University neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis, who takes issue with science fiction author Vernor Vinge and futurist Ray Kurzweil’s famous Singularity: that point at which computer intelligence emerges and outstrips human intelligence, which has been a staple of science fiction for years.

Robot
(“Robot,” by ewen and donabel, from Flickr under Creative Commons.)

The viewpoint article, “The Brain is Not Computable”, introduces Nicolelis and his new book on the brain and human thought. As opposed to Kurzweil, et al, who foresee artificial intelligence being developed in the next few decades as computers grow ever more powerful, Nicolelis posits that the functions of the human brain — including random and unpredictable interactions among its myriad neurons — will not be replicated inside a machine.

That reminded me of a conversation I had during a panel discussion at a science fiction and fantasy convention many years ago,* in which I expressed my own doubts about artificial intelligence. I’m dubious of its appearance any time soon, not from the perspective of computer science but from that of Theory of Knowledge.

Specifically, the emergence of true AI would seem to require the computer (or network of computers) to transcend its own programming. We have seen tremendous performances by machines as repositories of quickly-accessible data — the “Watson” computer that competed so well at Jeopardy! was such a machine, capable of parsing the answer and finding the components of the most likely question. But as I understand it, Watson was still following instructions: still performing tasks it had been programmed to perform.

I contend that machines such as Watson are at the lowest end of what I think of as the chain of intelligence: Data are interpreted into Knowledge, and Knowledge is applied and refined into Wisdom.

A true AI — or, if you will, an intelligent artifice — will have to be much more than a sophisticated data-mining tool. For it to adhere to Theory of Knowledge, it will have to be able to form concepts based on the data presented to it; to convey knowledge those concepts will have to be predictive in nature, and the artifice will have to test those predictions against reality and, if needed, modify and continue to test them. Once it can rely on the accuracy of its predictions enough to carry out independent,** routine tasks without recourse to intervention by its programmers, we might consider it intelligent — but as its intelligence is tried in the fire of reality, will that artifice develop anything approaching wisdom?

Will such a device — artificial, independent, and intelligent — be developed in our lifetimes, and will it approach (let alone surpass) the functions of the human brain? I’m aware of the danger of saying anything will never happen, so I won’t say no … but I doubt it.

The cyberneticists are welcome to prove me wrong.

___
*TriNoCon, perhaps? NASFiC? I don’t remember … and that bothers me.
**Which brings up another thorny issue with respect to any artifice: from whence shall it develop the will to act independently?

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This is My New Blog …

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Sort of the same as my old blog: Same name, same posts (transferred from the old one), but new software.

The main reason for the switch is the demise of the Space Warfare Forum; without that, there’s no reason to keep forum software running and to use its somewhat clunky blog interface. I suppose I could keep both going, but I can’t think of a good reason. (Anybody got one?) My hope is that keeping this new blog up and working will be a little less labor-intensive than the other.

Still working some of the kinks out — cleaning up the old posts that didn’t transfer quite right, figuring out what features to include and how to get all the little things to work — but even slow progress is progress. Not sure when re-directs will be in place.

So, for now, here it is.

Your thoughts?

GR-closeup-08

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Happy New Year, and My illogiCon Schedule

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Happy 2013 to one and all! I hope your New Year has started well, and that it gets better as it goes along!


(Professor Schroedington, the illogiCon mascot, from their CafePress store.)

A new year means a new round of science fiction and fantasy conventions, and the first one on my calendar is illogiCon, to be held right here in the Research Triangle 11-13 January. Here’s my schedule for the event:

Friday the 11th

  • Filk Workshop, 8 PM

Saturday the 12th

  • Panel, “Finance for Beginning Writers,” 10 AM
  • Filk Concert, 2 PM
  • Baen Books Traveling Road Show, 3:30 PM

Sunday the 13th

  • Reading, 1 PM
  • Panel, “Sitting in the Hot Seat,” 3 PM

Tim Powers is the Writer Guest of Honor, Mark Van Name is the Toastmaster, and a whole lot of other cool people are guests at this year’s con. I know I’ll have a great time! Hope to see you there.

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Because I Need One More Project … The Manufacturing Minute Video Series

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I’m pretty sure I really don’t need any more projects, but this one falls in the “it was my idea” category so I got to do it.

I am now the host of a series of YouTube videos called the “Manufacturing Minute.” As of now, we’ve done three official episodes, the most recent of which (below) was on “additive manufacturing.”

There are some extra videos on the Manufacturing Minute YouTube channel, and we’re going to try to put up a new one every week or so. I hope that some of my other Industrial Extension Service co-workers will take part, too, so it won’t be just my ugly mug on your computer screen. We’ll see if that happens.

Drop a line and let us know what you think, or if you want us to feature a particular topic.

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My Nephew's Jazz Album … + This Date in Space History

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If you like jazz, check out my nephew Ben Rolston’s album, Fables.


(Cover art for Ben Rolston’s FABLES. From the associated Bandcamp page.)

Ben is a bassist and composed all the songs in the collection. I am not particularly an aficionado of jazz, so don’t take my opinion as authoritative, but my favorite selection is “Branches and Bark,” which has some nice horns in it.

On the Bandcamp page, Fables, you can listen to each track, which is a pretty cool feature. The whole album has ten tracks, and sells for $10.

Now, as for this date in space history, so …

Thirty-five years ago today — September 29, 1977 — the Soviet Union launched their Salyut-6 space station from the Baikonur Cosmodrome atop a Proton K booster. Aboard Salyut-6, cosmonauts were able to stay in space for longer durations than ever. What that has to do with jazz, I don’t know … but there it is.

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From ‘Unsolved Mysteries,’ the Legend of the Gray Man

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A few weeks ago, award-winning author Jay Lake held an “open dinner” in Greensboro, where I made his acquaintance and that of his cousin, Sheri. After supper, my vanity license plate attracted some attention and led to me explaining who the Gray Man is and how I came to adopt the Grand Strand’s famous ghost as my alter ego.

Sheri, who lives in South Carolina, knew about the Gray Man and sent me a link to this segment from Unsolved Mysteries that delves into the legend of the ghost of Pawleys Island: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aU_UkpszL8.

If you have 10 minutes to watch, you’ll learn why the tag line of my web site (and my business cards) is, “If you heed the Gray Man’s warning, you make it safely through the storm.”

___

UPDATE: Unfortunately, that video has been taken down because of a copyright claim. You can still find the segment with a little persistence, if you’re of a mind to.

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What I Believe About What You Believe

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When our beliefs differ, and they often do, and especially when we clash over our beliefs, it’s good for you to know what I believe about what you believe.

I believe that you have the right to express what you believe.

I believe that you believe that what you’re telling me is good and true and right.

I don’t believe that your belief obligates me to believe the same thing.

I believe that I have the right to express what I believe.

I don’t believe that you must believe what I believe, even if I believe it’s good and true and right.

I believe that we should express our beliefs thoughtfully, respectfully, and politely.

I believe that we can converse, be acquainted, and maybe be friends, even if we believe different things.

But if you believe that I must believe what you believe, then I hope we can at least part on friendly terms.

___


(Punctuation makes a difference, I think.)

I guess this post is my way of trying to take responsibility for my own beliefs. That’s hard enough without trying to take responsibilty for anyone else’s.

Respectfully submitted,
G

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Is Your Business Prepared for a Disaster?

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(Cross-posted with light editing from the Industrial Extension Service blog.)

If a natural disaster or major accident impacted your company, how quickly would you be able to recover? Do you have backups of important files stored off-site? Do you have ready and portable access to contact information for your employees, customers, and suppliers? Do you have an emergency plan, and have you tested it?


(FEMA / Patsy Lynch)

Many years ago I was the Chief of the Disaster Response Force at the Air Force Astronautics Laboratory at Edwards Air Force Base, during which time I led the responses to two rocket propellant fires, so I’ve learned a thing or two about what it takes to handle emergencies. But last Tuesday I learned a few new things about disaster preparedness from a business perspective, and soon I’ll be able to apply my prior experience and what I just learned to teach the “Ready Business” course.

Ready Business is a half-day course designed to give businesses some practical tools to get prepared and stay prepared. The program operates under the guidance of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and is being brought to North Carolina in a team effort by the Cooperative Extension Service, the Industrial Extension Service, and the Small Business Technology Development Center.

Several of us will be available to teach the Ready Business course, and we hope to offer it many times throughout the state. If you’re interested, let us know!

Finally, while we’re on the subject of disasters, I love this bit from Karl Smith and the “Modeled Behavior” economics blog:

If we actually want to help the world, we focus on details and that usually means the short term. Things we can see closely and understand the nuances of. In short, we Stop Disaster.

One day we will lose and the world will come to an end. The apocalypse only has to win once. Our job is to make sure that that day, isn’t today.

Maybe we can’t truly stop disaster, but we can be ready for it — and that’s what disaster preparedness is all about.

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Great News! for Several Friends

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First, hearty congratulations to all my friends who garnered Nebula Award nominations! Several of the stories I nominated made the ballot (this was the first time I’ve been able to nominate, having recently upgraded my SFWA membership), and everyone on the list deserves a round of applause. The complete list is linked here, but I’m happiest for the folks I’ve gotten to know on-line or in-person — some very recently and some with whom I’ve been friends for several years — namely,

  • Mary Robinette Kowal, nominated for “Kiss Me Twice” (novella)
  • Kij Johnson, nominated for “The Man Who Bridged the Mist” (novella)
  • Ken Liu, nominated for “The Man Who Ended History: A Documentary” (novella) and “The Paper Menagerie” (short story)
  • Rachel Swirsky, nominated for “Fields of Gold” (novelette)
  • Brad R. Torgersen, nominated for “Ray of Light” (novelette)
  • Ferrett Steinmetz, nominated for “Sauerkraut Station” (novelette)
  • Katherine Sparrow, nominated for “The Migratory Pattern of Dancers” (novelette)
  • Jake Kerr, nominated for “The Old Equations” (novelette)
  • Tom Crosshill, nominated for “Mama, We are Zhenya, Your Son” (short story)
  • Aliette de Bodard, nominated for “Shipbirth” (short story)
  • Nancy Fulda, nominated for “Movement” (short story)
  • David W. Goldman, nominated for “The Axiom of Choice” (short story)

Now, of course, I have to figure out who I’m going to vote for. Along those lines, I’ll resurrect the line from my “Playing Politics” song: “I don’t know how much they’ll bribe me, I’ll just have to wait and see.”

Second, congratulations to my friend Jeff LaSala on the release of his Foreshadows project. (Full disclosure: Jeff and I are both slimy contractors for Baen Books.)


(Sample of Talon Dunning’s art for Foreshadows, from the Foreshadows web site.)

Foreshadows: The Ghost of Zero is an ambitious multi-media project combining original music, original fiction, and original artwork. Jeff, his brother, and several others collaborated on it, and the end result is very impressive.

I haven’t read many of the stories yet, but I’ve listened to all the music and it’s very evocative. (I admit that I’m not a big fan of “techno” and much of this music is of that style, but in terms of conveying the emotional undertones of the stories I think it works well.) My favorite of the songs is “Made in Brazil | Living in Japan.” The artwork, too, is extremely well done.

Check it out at http://foreshadows.net/!

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All That is Gold Does Not Glitter — J.R.R. Tolkien

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Facebook friends have already seen this on my status, and will see it again when this blog post shows up there. But I’m proud, so I’ll take the risk.

The video below is “kinetic typography” by my son Chris (a.k.a. Topher):

He chose a verse from Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings, and composed and performed the hammered dulcimer background music.

I think it turned out right nice.

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